Uncertainty & the Age of Engage

June 28, 2008 |

Age of Engage - Denise Shiffman - Live Web I AM CURRENTLY reading the Age of Engage by Denise Shiffman about the current state of marketing in today’s internet infused business world. The books tag-line ‘Reinventing Marketing for Today’s Connected, Collaborative, and Hyperinteractive Culture’ pretty much sums it up. I’ve only read through the first 50 pages or so, but something I read this morning resonated loud and clear which I thought was appropriate and certainly applies to managing paid search. The follwing excerpt from page 45, similar to the books tag-line, sums up my perspective on living in a PPC world.

Good strategies fail because no one has a crystal ball - markets and customers change. Having your finger on the pulse of the marketplace can transform a good strategy into a continuously evolving system that enables innovative ideas and superior execution. Actively consuming real-time information and regularly interacting with the marketplace is the answer. Tracking and analyzing every click your customers and prospects make on your Web site is critical… Uncertainty is a part of the business and should be embraced. Recognizing and managing uncertainty is a better path than demanding product teams state they are sure of the path chosen - because they never really are sure.

The last part about embracing uncertainty as a part of the business is what I love about managing paid search. Often times (too often) the uncertainty of not knowing how a new campaign or ad group will perform is either seen as a constraint or too risky. Personally I enjoy not knowing what is going to happen until it happens - sometimes things work extremely well, other times things bomb.

And Shiffman is all too correct by saying ‘no one has a crystal ball’. Sure you can review past data (if it exists and, more importantly, if it is valid) to ‘predict’ future customer/click behavior, but what was true in the past and what will be true tomorrow is never the same and is not something any of us can control. Unless there is a predictive model that exists which factors in things like the economy, war, inventory, competition, pricing and the exact number of people that will convert into its formula, any type of forecasting adds little value. In a lean environment forecasting is considered a non-value added task (rework) since the forecast will ultimately be incorrect. If anything, forecasting to satisfy a client or your boss should be automated. Software like (oddly enough) Oracle’s Crystal Ball is something I would recommend.

I am looking forward to finishing Age of Engage and gathering other inspiring thoughts about this new exciting time in business and marketing.

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